I had a pretty darn good draft. I don't care what anyone says, it was good. I prepared for this draft more than any other, and it worked out pretty much to the way I wanted. Guys were reaching for suspect players and I let certain guys fall into my lap that I was high on. And not just me, but the so called experts were too. Hell, I got the #1 point scorer in our league right now (Jay Cutler) in the 8th round as some of these "good" teams in my league took Philip Rivers, Derek Anderson, Matt Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer and Eli "3rd round" Manning before Mr. Cutler. I saw more information before this draft than anyone in our league. I did over 50 Mock Drafts online and I knew where certain guys would go. I was prepared more than anyone in my league. There was one other guy (Rutta, who's 1-4) who probably knew as much as I going in. It boils down to this. You can try to control your destiny by studying up and giving yourself a leg up, but sometimes (and more in fantasy football than poker), it's just plain dumb luck.
Here are some interesting stats I've found for players that have played against me this year. The averages are for the games they've played against other teams.
Week #1 (Lost 133 - 80.5)
- Donovan McNabb 38 Points - Avg. 18.6/game
- Randy Moss 23 Points - Avg. 18.1/game
- Thomas Jones 22.5 Points - Avg. 6.2/game
- Calvin Johnson 18.5 Points - Avg. 10/game
Week #2 (Lost 121.5 - 101)
- Greg Jennings 24 Points - Avg. 19.1/game
- Marion Barber 25 Points - Avg. 15.5/game
- Tony Scheffler 21 Points - Avg. 5.25/game
Week #3 (Lost 123-115)
- Carson Palmer 21 Points - Avg. 7.6/game
- Michael Turner 33 Points - Avg. 18.1/game
- Julius Jones 25.5 Points - Avg. 9.75/game
Week #4 (Lost 101-98)
- Kurt Warner 26 Points -Avg. 23/game
- Kevin Walter 23 Points - Avg. 6.2/game
- Adrian Peterson 22 Points - Avg. 14.5/game
Week #5 (Lost 103-92)
- Hines Ward 18.5 Points - Avg. 9.1/game
- Jason Witten 17 Points - Avg. 14.7/game
- Larry Fitzgerald 20.5 - Avg. 19.75/game
In all honesty, I got whooped the first two weeks. That's fine. I accept it. But these numbers don't lie. Every one of these guys has scored more vs. me than the average. And in some cases (Kevin Walter, Tony Scheffler, Julius Jones, Hines Ward, Carson Palmer and Thomas Jones) it isn't even close! But there is no way with my team, I should be 5-0. My core starters are:
QB - Jay Cuter RB - Joseph Addai RB - Ryan Grant WR - Plaxico Burress WR - TJ Housmanzadeh TE - Kellen Winslow WR/RB - Dwayne Bowe, Torry Holt or Jonathan Stewart
Don't get me wrong, I love fantasy football, but in some cases, you can do nothing to guard against dumb luck. I should be 3-2 or at worst 2-3, but I'm not. Oh well, I'll still keep plugging along. Besides, the #1 and #2 seeds better hope I don't squeak into the playoffs!
7 comments:
Ok, I know you shouldn't be 0-5 but the rest of this is a real reach!!! this is a marathon and not a race. I've been in fantasy football for about 5 years now and have won and placed between the two leagues I'm in multiple times! I know what it is like to have people have there best weeks again you time and time again, hence the pearlnecklaces last year. I believe I finished 3rd in points and didn't make the playoffs so don't be giving me your sob story at this point in the league like the rest of us don't have a clue!! If you look at the total points in the league right now, I'm in third and approiately ranked third. Langbehn is 1st and ranked second. Everyone is within a place of where they should be except yourself that should be about 8th instead of 11th. Look back at last year and tell me where I should have been at the end of the year and then whine to me. This is for fun and someone always gets a bad rap. Usually overall points don't lie. You didn't even have T.J. to start off the year. Waterboy gave you a gift and you know it. I may not have put as much time into my draft as you, but I still took pride in it, so don't be bagging on the rest of us like we don't deserve to be there just because your having some bad luck!!! Your almost 200 pts behind the top scorer. Yeah on paper your draft looked great day one but not everyone has the same stats year after year. I'd be more upset having taken L.T. and the stats he's putting up than what your complaining about!!!
I'm not bagging on anyone and not saying you don't have a clue. I'm stating that its dumb luck which it turns out it is most of the time. These numbers don't lie. Your W over me was the luckiest of all five.
Your case last year was exactly what I'm talking about. You should know that.
I'm 0-5 because of some unreal performances by other guys on other teams and some underacheivers on mine. I know that. You can't miss on your first two picks and survive most of the time. It appears I missed on Ryan Grant as he's gotten off to a poor start. And speaking of gifts Doc, waterboy gave you the gift of AP at #4. That was a gift.
I wouldn't say that it's 90% luck and 10% knowledge, more like 40% luck, 30% knowledge and 30% on what team your players are playing against. Example when I ended up beating you in week 3, Turner had 33 points and played at home against KC, the worst D in the league. J Jones had had 25 points at home against St Louis, the 2nd worst D in the league. Playing against the Lions, Chiefs, St Louis and Houston are bound to get you more points than playing against Tennesse, Carolina and Baltimore. By the way, if you follow the drafts of this league, http://nffc.nbcsports.com/football/index2.asp, you will find out about more about fantasy drafts than any 50 yahoo leagues. Anyone interest in joining the above league next year? $1,000 entry fee
I agree it has a ton with who your guys play against. I base that into the luck factor. I just happened to be playing you, when you had two RB's going against bad defenses. It also didn't hurt that Mo Morris got hurt the game before so Jones got all the carries. There's just no way to guard against that stuff. We pre-register our teams, so I don't know that when we play you're going to have these great matchups and neither does the guy drafting them. It just happens that way.
Doing 50 mock drafts certainly gets you more prepared than most for our stake of money.
I agree that there is some luck involved and some have way more than others and its sucks being on the losing end of everyone having there best weeks against you, trust me I KNOW!!! Come on Barb can't win three yrs in a row can she? I gaurantee you put way more time in than she did preparing for the draft. The problem also lies in the rise and fall of teams from year to year that you can't predict. No one can tell me they thought Atlanta would be as good as they are. M. Turner I figured to be fair playing for a bad team and behind that he wouldn't get that many touches but now look at what he's doing and the success that they are having. Brady going down hurt alot of fantasy players. Grant was huge for me last year and he's sucking this year. L.T. is way below his norm. Then you have these rookies that are lighting it up and having one of those is just luck for the most part. So all in all I agree with you Matty just felt like you thought you were the only one that ever got a raw deal in FF. There's still plenty of time, you just need to start winning and sneak into the playoffs which I was unable to do last year. Because I think me last year and you this year could disrupt things a little :)
No, I probably came off wrong that way. I know there are some teams who are pretty clueless, but I haven't even played them yet, except for Barb. But hey, it happens, I'm just to the point now where I expect it. Hell, I even vote for the other team when I predict the weeks winners.
Also, Barb didn't win last year. Langbehn kicked her butt right away in the playoffs and then he beat Mathies for the championship.
For me to get it, I need to win most of the remaining games which I could do with some of these teams left to play. My schedule was front loaded evidently.
seems to be a trend developing with people doing well in consecutive years
Post a Comment